How many Hillaristas will not vote for Obama?
SOURCE OF FIGURES
The figure ‘nine million’ is not a count of PUMA members; it is not derived from PUMA or justsaynodeal.com organizations, but from professional telephone polls in the real world outside the internet.
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UPDATE August 14, 2008
(for cites scroll down to previous article)
In July, Opinion Research found 9 million Hil’s refusing to support Obama (up from 7 million in June).
Recently a Quin. poll found no improvement for Obama among Hil’s over the last couple of months.
Now here is a Pew poll also finding no change in support.
http://pewresearch.org/pubs/924/presidential-race-draws-even
“[August 13, 2008] The Obama campaign has made no significant headway among former Clinton backers over the past two months. The voting preferences of Clinton’s supporters are virtually identical to earlier polls in June and July.”
OpRes found more Hil holdouts than the other two pollsters, but this must have been methodology rather than a change in voters’ opinions, because ALL THREE pollsters show ‘puma’ votes are HOLDING STEADY (in OpRes, Obama lost 2 million).
In June, Opinion Research’s breakdown was 3 million voting for McCain and 4 million staying home.
Here is Pew’s current breakdown:
“Among the 28% who say they will not support Obama on November 4th, 18% say they will support McCain , 7% don’t yet know who they will support and 3% plan to back another candidate.”
Note that Pew is not counting stayhomes! So if there have been no changes in preference, the Dems will be losing considerably more votes than indicated by Pew’s 28% if they nominate Obama.
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PREVIOUS:
As of July 4, CNN reports that a real poll taken in the real world outside the internet now shows 9 million Hillary supporters refusing to vote for Obama.
UPDATE: Jy 5, 2008 There has been an update to the poll below. The figure currently quoted is 46% or 9 million, at
http://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/07/04/clinton.poll/index.html?iref=werecommend
Poll: 43 percent of Dems still say they want Clinton as the party’s nominee
Number of Clinton supporters who plan to defect to McCain is down
In a CNN/Opinion Research Corp. survey completed in early June before the New York senator ended her White House bid, 60 percent of Clinton backers polled said they planned on voting for Obama. In the latest poll, that number has dropped to 54 percent.
43 percent of registered Democrats polled still say they would prefer Clinton to be the party’s presidential nominee. That number is significantly higher than it was in early June, when 35 percent of Democrats polled said they preferred Clinton to lead the party’s presidential ticket. [....]
Obama won 59 percent of support from registered Democrats polled in June; now he garners 54 percent.
Oddly, this seems to say that both 46% of HIllary supporters AND 46% of registered Democrats will not support Obama.
Anyway, 46% is up from the 39% of Hillary supporters, which was 7 million. 46% of Hillary’s 18 million supporters would be more like 9 million.
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http://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/06/09/clinton.supporters/
“A newly released CNN/Opinion Research Corp. poll found that [...] 22 percent of her supporters would stay home this fall — and another 17 percent would vote for McCain.”
So that was 39% not voting for Obama — about 7 million voters.
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Here is Craig Della Penna crunching the June 9 numbers (at his blog, http://theheraclitanfire.blogspot.com/)
“A newly released CNN/Opinion Research Corp. poll found that [...] 22 percent of her supporters would stay home this fall (almost 4 million voters) — and another 17 percent (a little over 3 million) would vote for McCain.” –CNN (parentheses are mine). So, if we use 2004 as the baseline - GWB won with 62 million voters vs Kerry’s 59 million. then take away 4 million Democratic votes, that leaves BHO with 55 million. 2008Now take away another 3 million from that (Clinton supporters who will not stay home but will vote for McCain) and add 3 million to the Republican side. You end up with 65 million for McCain to 52 million for BHO. There is a word for this: landslide.
UPDATE Aug 2: An ABC/WP poll released late July says that putting Clinton on the ticket as VP would not help Obama: it would gain support from some but lose support from others — the effects cancel out.
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‘Dream Ticket’ Meets Reality: Obama Looks Beyond Clinton |
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UPDATE July 29:I’d like to receive some more information to add to this.
Does anyone have cites on the exit polls showing how many who voted for Hillary said they would not support Obama? Iirc it was around 35% on the late primaries, but that may have been only those who said they would vote for McCain, not including those who would stay home.
Also, does anyone know where to find more details on those polls?
Any other more current information on the current figures?
For more updates, info, and cites, see
http://clintondems.com/2008/08/polls-holding-steady-9-mil-hils-against-obama/
You didnt count me… I wont be voting for him either….
Consider me one of Hillary’s 18 million who will not be voting for Obama.
“Hillary is a Class Act; Obama is Just an Act”
I will write in\Could never vote Republican
In Massachusetts we have Kerry (will vote against him no matter who the opponent is in the primary).
no obama- never- McCain08
I won’t vote to put NOBAMA in the big chair!
McCain..08
Democracy at work, principles and country, before party!
I switched my support to Hillary after my first-choice candidate, Bill Richardson, withdrew from the primaries. Although I admire Hillary Clinton, I would not categorize myself as a “Hillarista.”
That said, I have disliked Obama from the get-go, and I will not vote for him. This is not a racist decision; in fact, one of my first reactions to Obama was that it would be disappointing to have the first black president be a person of so little substance, when there are so many who are better-qualified for the position.
We need to make sure he doesn’t win these swing states! thats what are focus needs to be on. Ohio, Michigan, Florida, Colorado, Indiana, NC, Virginia, New Mexico, Nevada. Blacks will come out and make him win and it has to be countered!!
I will not vote for Obama
never ever no way no how.
hillary or McCain 08
Don’t forget Pa that state is very important. PA has a good shot for going to McCain. The polls have Obama with a slight lead and in this state at this time of the year that is horrible for Obama. I know McCain is spending a lot of time here. I am voting McCain because if I do not Obama will win PA and that cannot happen.
I am African American so his race certainly has nothing to do with my decision to vote for McCain. I like and respect Senator McCain and I did not appreciate Senator Obama playing the race card inappropriatly.
No one asked me but I won’t be voting for Obama for sure. Hillary is the only one I will vote for as the Democratic candidate, after all, she actually WON! If not Hillary, it may be McCain or even Nader. Obama is just another G.W. Bush - an inept inexperience male that hasn’t a clue how to run the country. I will not vote for another empty suit.
I will not vote for Obama. He is not qualified to be President. He flip flops on all of his policies that got him in the race in the first place. He plays the race card on anyone who opposes him. He does not have the best interest of the country as a priority.
I will not be voting for Obama this November and I am and always have been a Democrat, but this year JOHN MCCAIN will get my vote, you can thank the DNC.
Puma Proud
He sounds like a preacher. We don’t need another preacher. We NEED Senator Clinton!
I will never vote for Obama. If he becomes the nominee, I will be voting for John McCain. The DNC cannot choose the nominee. They must listen to the will of the people or lose the Whitehouse.
McCain08
The DNC has acted inappropriately this year in SELECTING Obama. I have always voted Democrat, but not this year. My vote goes to John McCain.
I am a true Clinton supporter who will never vote for Obama. The DNC did not act according to the majority of the voters. I will have to vote McCain in November.
I will never vote for Obama and, if necessary, will vote for McCain. Obama is not good for America and is disastrous for the Dem party.
I, nor anyone in my dirrect family will vote or Obama. So add 5 more to this count.
Change…. ya change for the worse…..
We would have to go towards McCain also then.
I will not vote for bo under any circumstances. I will vote for McCain IF Hillary doen’t run.
I will not be voting for the fauxgressive DNC selectee.
Obama lost my vote when he claimed that people who supported Hillary were “bitter white people clinging to guns and religion”. What he wanted to say was we are a bunch of rednecks who lack the intelligence to make an informed decision about a Presidential Candidate based on that persons qualifications so we turn to race. I can’t vote for a Republican, I am done with the Dems, I am still ticked at Nader, writing Clinton in in CA won’t count, so I have decided to throw my vote and my money behind Cynthia McKinney and the Green Party.
Buck Farack-McKinney08-Clinton2012
Senator Clinton is the only person that I feel can get ths Country out of this mess that we are in! I hear none of the two candidates speaking on these issues! This was a highjacked primary and I might as well stay home Election Day.
One of the proud 10% AA not voting for the seleted DNC candidate.
Count me in–I could never vote for that lying piece of trash Obama. He’s an arrogant, racist, inexperienced JOKE!!! Hillary was and still is the only right choice for this country. We are totally screwed if Obama gets elected, so we’ve gotta fight to not let it happen. As much as I hate to say it, I would rather have 4 years of McCain than even one day of Obama. I can’t wait to see Hillary being sworn into office for 8 years. That will be a blessed day for this country.
HILLARY WAS DONE IN BY
1. THE PRESS;
2. THE BLACK COMMUNITY WHO JUMPED SHIP AND
VOTED ON RACE GROUNDS ONLY;
3. THE LEFT WING DEMOCRATIC ELITE!
I WILL VOTE FOR MCCLAIN IN 2008
I WILL VOTE FOR HILLARY IN 2012
GOOD BYE DEMOCRAT ELITES!
GOOD BY BLACK AMERICA WHO DUMPED AN EXPERIENCED CIVIL RIGHTS LEADER LIKE THE CLINTONS SOLELY ON RACE (JESSE JACKSON IS RIGHT);
WHAT’S WRONG WITH AMERICA!
GOD BLESS AND HELP AMERICA!
PATRICK CHRISTOPHER
I cannot nor will ever vote for Obama. I cannot believe the DNC would nominate this idiot. He is losing ground everyday with his stupidity. I truly believe this guy will ruin and do permanent damage to the Democrats. It will take years to recover.
There is just something terribly wrong with all of this. A deep and bad foreboding. I am just terrible disappointed Hill even gave Obama any of her support. I suppose there is the bigger picture, but was it me or did anyone else feel disgust she supports this Hollywood asinine medicine-man show??
That little troop evasion in Europe will cost him dearly.
I do not want to vote for McCain, but Obama cannot take office, he will sell out the US..
I am a “Die-Hard” supporter of Hillary and will NOT
vote for Obama in Nov.
I’m hoping that Hillary’s name will be on the Roll Call
at the convention in August, then I would definantly vote for Hillary!!!! “HANG IN THERE, HILLARY”
Howard Dean should take very seriously the threat of losing the election as a result of the DNC treatment of Hillary Clinton. If Hillary’s name is not place in rotation at the convention he should understand that number of 9 million will become quite a serious figure in november. My vote is not up for discussion of opinion. It is my vote and I will cast it the way I choose. It is insulting that democrats would continue to urge people to “get on board”. I vote for candidates, not political parities.
I am voting for McCcain. Obama is a show off. He is an opportunist and a fake. He thinks he is the President.
Hillary is a honest Senator and Obama is just a senator from the hood.
[...] nine million Hillary supporters will not vote for Obama in November (growing — up from 7 million in [...]